What triggers this
We watch three retention metrics continuously:- D1 retention — share of new installs who return the next day.
- D7 retention — share who return a week later.
- D30 retention — share who return a month later.
What the recommendation contains
Every retention recommendation has three parts:- The observation. “D7 retention dropped from 28% to 23% (−18%) between April 2 and April 6, affecting primarily the new_player and minnow segments.”
- Likely causes, ranked. Usually 2–4 items, each with a confidence indicator. Examples:
- High confidence: “A patch on April 1 introduced a new tutorial flow. D1 dropped first, then D7 followed.” (We correlate with your deploy events if you send them.)
- Medium confidence: “Offer saturation — new players saw an average of 3.2 paid offers per session, up from 1.8 before the patch.”
- Lower confidence: “Seasonal — comparable drops observed in the broader F2P market this week.”
- Suggested actions. Concrete. “Reduce new-player offer frequency to 1 per session for the first 3 days” or “roll back the tutorial change to A/B test against the new version.”

