What triggers this
Any of:- ARPDAU drops more than 20% vs. the 14-day trend, sustained 3+ days.
- Conversion rate on a specific offer drops below the 10th percentile of your catalog for 7+ days.
- Payer share (percentage of DAU who paid in the last 7 days) drops more than 15% vs. trend.
- First-purchase rate (share of new players who make any purchase in their first 3 days) drops more than 20%.
Common patterns we report
Offer fatigue
A specific offer has been in rotation too long. Conversion decays as your repeat-viewer base exhausts. Action: rotate it out for 2–3 weeks, or reprice.Placement saturation
Too many offers in one placement. Players tune it out. Action: reduce offers per placement; trust personalization to pick the best one.Price anchor shift
A new cheap offer has made existing offers feel expensive by comparison, even if they’re objectively the same price they were yesterday. Action: either retire the cheap offer or re-tier the premium ones.Segment mismatch
An offer tagged for whales is being shown to minnows (because of a tagging mistake or an over-broad segment_tag). Action: tighten the tags.Missing first-purchase offer
No offer under $2.99 exists in your catalog, or the one that does exists is poorly placed. First-purchase rate falls because there’s no low-friction entry point. Action: add or relocate a starter offer.What the card shows you
- The metric that triggered it and its current vs. baseline value.
- A breakdown by segment so you can see who is affected.
- A list of 2–3 candidate causes, each with enough data to confirm or dismiss.
- One or two suggested actions, with an expected impact range (e.g. “adding a $1.99 starter offer should lift first-purchase rate from 3.1% to 4.5–6.0% within 14 days”).